Key events of the week (2-8.12.2019)

02.12.2019 10:47|Conotoxia Ltd Analyst Team

The first week of December promises to be very interesting in the financial markets. Investors will not only get to know data from the European and American economy, but also central bank meetings will be held and the expected OPEC summit will take place, which may have an impact on oil prices.

Due to the fact that the next Friday will be the first Friday of the new month, the data from the US labor market will be published, including the popular NFP non-farm payrolls. According to market consensus, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6 percent in November, and the number of new jobs in non-farm sectors is to increase by 180,000 against a month ago increase by 128,000. In turn, the average hourly earnings on a monthly basis is to increase by 0.3 percent, and on an annual basis by 3 percent. If the data do not differ significantly from consensus, it may not have a significant impact on the dollar. The situation on the labor market should also be mitigated by the latest series of interest rate cuts by the Fed. Data from the US labor market will be published on Friday, December 6 at 14:30.

Meanwhile, ISM for the US industry will be published today on Monday, December 2 at 16:00. In November, the index examining the economic situation in this sector is to fall below 50 points again, which means an industrial recession. This would be another reading below 50 points since September. However, whatever data would not appear, it seems that the Fed may not decide to cut interest rates further in December. Such a move could take place in the first quarter of 2020 if the trade war is not eased.

By switching to central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its decision on Tuesday, December 3 at 4:30. It seems that RBA may leave the main interest rate at 0.75 percent, but more important than the decision will be the Bank's narrative. Australia is a country where a possible QE was even mentioned, so this type of mention may lead to possible further weakness in AUD. The market is anticipating that next year interest rates in Australia will be lower.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, December 4, the Monetary Policy Council will publish its decision on interest rates in Poland. According to announcements repeated for months, interest rates in Poland may not change for a long time.

The next central bank will be the Bank of Canada, which will also publish its decision on interest rates also on Wednesday, 4 December at 16:00. The market consensus assumes no change and the main interest rate of 1.75 percent. Nevertheless, easing of monetary policy in the United States may also lead to a similar attitude in Canada next year.

We will end the week with an OPEC meeting around which there is growing tension. At the end of last week, oil bounced back from the biggest weekly loss since early October after Iraq signaled that OPEC and allies would consider deeper cuts in output this week, contrary to earlier statements by OPEC. Thus, the outcome of the meeting may be important for oil prices.

Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.

Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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