The key event of the week seems to be the publication of data from the US labour market, which will appear on the first Friday of the month. The labour market is important because, along with inflation, it is one of the components based on which the Fed makes its monetary policy decisions.
In total, from the outbreak of the epidemic to the spring in the United States, the number of jobs was reduced by 22 million. The economic restrictions introduced, mass layoffs and company closures have progressed at a rate never seen before. It was only from May that the restrictions began to be reduced in the US, allowing around 8 million jobs to return, which means that the deficit is still very large. Also, with the development of another wave of epidemics, another wave of increase in the number of unemployed may appear.
Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that the current data on the change of jobs is data collected until 12th July. It seems that it was only in the second half of July that the labour market deteriorated, so the data may not show this yet. Another concern is the renewed increase in applications for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of July. The data from the United States will be released on Friday at 2:30 pm.
In turn, macroeconomic publications from Europe are unlikely to play important role in the first week of August. The ones worth noting are mainly retail sales for June. It couldan show what the revival among consumers and their spending was like. Whether they are back to normal, or whether consumers are more conservative, frugal, and cautious.
In markets, in turn, the main focus may be on the spread of the epidemic and possible further restrictions with the possibility of another stimulus package by the US government. A hot topic may also be the discussion on the potential postponement of the US presidential election, as Donald Trump has already said this week.
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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